Mohammad Ali's Advice to Democrats

Democratic

Democratic lawmakers are understandably frustrated in the face of a seemingly all-powerful, lying and cheating president. They want to fight him at every turn, including denying him a Continuing Resolution (CR) which provides the funding that allows the government to avoid a partial shutdown. Senator Schumer understands this impulse, but considers it more productive to use the "rope-a-dope" strategy against Trump that Muhammad Ali used against George Forman.

No heavyweight fighter had ever regained the crown after he had lost it, but Ali was different; he had lost the crown in court, not in the ring. In 1967, at the height of his career, he refused to be inducted into the military because he was morally opposed to the War in Vietnam. Stripping him of his crown was among his punishments.

Ali was allowed to box again in 1970 and gained the right to face the champion, Joe Frazier, in 1971. He lost that fight by a unanimous decision. Frazier then was himself defeated by George Forman in 1973 in an overwhelming beat down that lasted only two rounds. Forman was considered the hardest puncher in boxing history.

So the following year, when Ali had again earned the right to fight for the championship, the odds were 4 to 1 against him. He had lost to Frazier and Frazier had been overwhelmed by Forman.

Ali claimed that he would defeat Forman. He would "float like a butterfly and sting like a bee" as he had done in the 1960s. But he knew that he no longer had the stamina for that strategy. His real strategy was to lead with his right instead of just jab with his left, because the right was a harder punch. Straight rights start farther away from the opponent, so this strategy required that Ali's hands be faster than Forman's, and they were. But these harder punches in the first round didn't faze Forman, so Ali changed his approach.

He would allow himself to be pushed up against the ropes, adopt a defensive position, and let Forman punch away. This would eventually tire Forman out so that his punches would lose their force. By the fifth round Ali was able to assert himself and in the eighth round knock Forman out.

This is essentially the strategy that Senator Schumer is using against President Trump. Without the guardrails of his first administration, Trump is indulging his manias for tariffs and for a reduced government workforce. Fighting him in the ordinary way by refusing to pass a CR would be a losing strategy. When this was done in the past, it increased the prestige and the power of the president over Congress, because voters blamed Congress more than the president for the shutdown. Newt Gingrich learned this lesson in the 1990s.

The way to defeat Trump is to let Trump be Trump just as the way to defeat Forman was to let Forman be Forman. We know that voters don't respond to threats to democracy, but they do respond to inflation and to reductions in the value of their 401 (k) retirement accounts. The trade wars initiated by tariffs will cause inflation. Interest rates will increase, as this is the main way that the government fights inflation. As borrowing becomes more costly, stock prices go down. So, Trump is on a path to cause inflation and reduce the value of financial assets. Democrats should not get in his way.

Reducing personnel working for the government will also lead to negative outcomes that voters will recognize. A bad fire - why was firefighter training curtailed? An airline disaster - why aren't there more air traffic controllers? An earthquake - why aren't there more people from FEMA to help victims? A flood, hurricane, or tornado - why was the National Weather Service reduced? A deadly disease - why was innovation at the NIH curtailed and the CDC hobbled?

In short, just as Forman was defeated by letting him do his thing, so can Trump be defeat, and democracy be saved, by allowing him to run amuck in ways that ordinary Americans can feel and understand. This will create openings for Democrats to get the majority to internalize the fact that Trump was never a successful businessman. He led six corporations to bankruptcy; stiffed thousands of workers and investors; lost many court cases for shady business practices; and paid numerous fines. He also raised the national debt more in his first term than any president before or since. At that point, many Republican lawmakers will see greater jeopardy of being primaried or losing the next general election by following Trump than by opposing him. Democracy will be saved.

Why doesn't Schumer explain this to Democrats? If Ali had announced his "rope-a-dope" strategy to Forman, it wouldn't have worked.